Asian markets

Asian markets extend global rally on Citi news

Asian stock markets surged Tuesday, with Japan's key index jumping nearly 5 percent, after Wall Street staged a massive rally as news that Citigroup is turning a profit buoyed hopes the stricken financial sector can recover.

The region's lurch higher, led partly by financial shares, was a welcome reprieve from the depressing declines in global equities over the last few weeks.

But analysts said the relief was likely to be temporary as stocks, in the throes of the worst bear market in years, continue to grind toward a new bottom in the coming months amid the worsening outlook for the world economy. Another sharp drop in Chinese exports last month was just the latest grim reminder of how severe the global downturn is.

"What you've seen today is mostly a technical bounce in markets after falling steeply recently, and I don't think this rally can be sustained," said Arjuna Mahendran, the Singapore-based head of Asian investment strategy for HSBC Private Bank, which manages some US$494 billion in assets. "It's still far too early to predict that the global recession is over ... The fundamentals are simply not in place."

The catalyst for the rally on Wall Street was a letter from Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit to employees saying the bank had operated at a profit for the first two months of this year, logging its best performance since the third quarter of 2007, the last time it booked a quarterly profit.

Investors, desperate for any positive signs about the ailing financial system, cheered the news about the banking giant, which has lost so much money the federal government has been forced to extend billions in aid and take a 36 percent stake.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average shot up 321.14 points, or 4.6 percent, to 7,376.12, rebounding from a 26-year closing low hit this week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng leaped 332.56 points, or 2.8 percent, to 12,026.61.

Elsewhere, South Korea's Kospi rose 35.31, or 3.2 percent, to 1,127.51. Benchmarks in Australia, Singapore and Taiwan were up 1.9 percent.

Banking shares were especially strong, with leading Japanese bank Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. gaining 4 percent. HSBC, which like Citi gave reassurances this week that it was performing better than expected so far this year, advanced 6 percent in Hong Kong, continuing its recovery form a 24 percent plunge on Monday.

The upbeat mood, though, belied more evidence that Asian countries were still suffering from the drought in Western demand that drives their export-reliant economies.

In China, exports plunged 25.7 percent last month as overseas appetites for goods made in the world's third-largest economy continued to deteriorate. Imports also fell. A string of monthly export declines is undermining hopes among many investors that China can boost its economy, at least in the near term, with a 4 trillion ($586 billion) stimulus package.

Also in Asia, Japanese machinery orders, an indicator of how much the country's companies are spending, fell 3.2 percent in January, though were still better than expected.

In the U.S., Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke warned the U.S. recession wouldn't end this year unless the government bailout of banks succeeded and financial markets were restored to working order.

On Tuesday, Wall Street posted its best performance of the year, with the Dow Jones industrials surging 379 points, or about 5.8 percent, to 6,926.49. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 43.07 points, 6.4 percent, to 719.6.

Stock futures pointed to modest gains on Wall Street Wednesday. Dow futures rose 46, or 0.7 percent, to 6,933 and S&P 500 futures advanced 4.5, or 0.6 percent, to 720.50.

Oil prices were steady in Asian trade, with light, sweet crude for April delivery up 5 cents at $45.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.36 to settle at $45.71 a barrel overnight.

The dollar weakened to 98.54 yen from 98.80 yen late Tuesday. The euro dropped to $1.2629 from $1.2702.

indo today

Asking for NGO’s accountability may sound like a harsh question, but that is in fact the underlying issue for all the debates related to the evolving relationship between the UN and NGOs over the decades.

Substantial efforts have been made to address this question, even at the highest level of global governance. A Panel of Eminent Persons on UN-Civil Society relations was established by the UN Secretary General in 2003 to make report and recommendations on the issue. At the 2005 Summit, World Leaders welcomed the positive contributions of civil society organizations, including NGOs, to the work of the UN. They also encouraged continued dialogue between civil society and Member States.

Yet, the question continues to raise anxieties for many.

There is a general consensus on the need for continued dialogue and interaction between Member States and NGOs. At the same time, there are different expectations and preferences on how to manage and develop it further.

Last year, together with H.E. Ambassador Johan L. Lovald of Norway, the writer had the opportunity to act as a personal advisor of the President of the 60th General Assembly on the relationship between Member States and civil society, including NGOs. Discussions were held with representatives of Member States, NGOs and related UN agencies, regarding current practices of NGO engagement in the work of the UN and future expectations.

While confirming the existence of clear differences on various issues between Member States and NGOs, it was heartening to note that there was sufficient common ground to develop more meaningful, constructive and workable partnerships and interaction between both sides.

Both agreed on the fundamentality of the intergovernmental nature of the United Nations. Both also agreed that further measures for increased interaction could be envisaged. Among the important measures identified was to address the so-called “confidence deficit”.

It was clear that a certain “confidence deficit” existed at the heart of the relationship between Member States and NGOs. This has raised a question pertaining to the NGO accountability, especially in connection with their involvement in the work of the United Nations.

This is particularly relevant in light of the fact that NGOs have greatly proliferated and become more visible while remaining relatively unregulated in many parts of the world. A lack of international standard of NGO accountability has allowed far less credible organizations to undermine the effectiveness of credible NGOs. There is a legitimate concern over the question of NGO accountability, one underlying factor behind the confidence deficit.

Member States generally appear to be open to increased consultation with NGOs as long as there are clear parameters that are understood and respected by all. NGOs are valued for their expertise in a variety of areas, their role as partners in implementing various development programs, and their capacity to provide early warning in cases of potential conflicts.

Many NGOs themselves also emphasized the importance of accountability and wished to exercise due diligence for NGOs attending UN meetings. Accountability was viewed to be integral to establishing meaningful dialogue between Member States and NGOs.

Questioning NGO accountability should not be viewed as an unfriendly attempt to disengage. Instead, it reflects growing recognition of the increased role of civil society, including NGOs, in shaping public policy across the world.

Such role needs to be accompanied by accountability, however.

The notion of NGO accountability needs to be defined and developed. This is not an easy task because of the multiplicity of actors with whom the NGOs engage. Yet, several areas certainly need to be addressed in this regard.

There should be a recognized standards by the NGO community for their integrity and performance. The participation in the work of the UN should be granted to organizations that truly have expertise in the area being discussed.

The idea of a code of conduct for NGOs is also worth further exploration. The code of conduct can be an instrument to ensure that NGOs commit themselves to the aims of the Charter and act in a manner that respects the intergovernmental character of the UN.

There should be a level playing field for NGOs involvement, in that the NGOs attending UN meetings are truly representative of the world’s population. This brings up the crucial issue of the participation of NGOs from developing countries.

As of 2005, approximately 67% of all NGOs in consultative status with Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) came from developed countries, which only constitute 20% of the world’s countries. Understandably, developing countries sometimes view NGOs involvement as another channel to push the “Northern agenda”.

Several initiatives have been identified to address this imbalance, including optimizing the use of information and communication technology and establishing a trust fund to provide financial assistance to NGO representatives from developing countries.

These are only some of the areas that can be elaborated further. This is a healthy process towards a realistic framework for balancing interests and respecting the different roles of Member States and NGOs within the UN process. This is also a positive sign of the growing maturity of the international community in welcoming the role and contributions of civil society, including the NGOs.

In the evolving relationship between the UN and NGOs, NGOs may not be able to claim to be the representative of all the peoples, but they can definitely give voice to a wide range of opinion which emerges in various segments of society.

Indonesia Today: A Road to Democracy

President Abdurrahman Wahid (popularly known as Gus Dur), whose term of office was supposed to run until 2004, lost his presidency when the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) revoked its mandate and appointed Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri as a new president.

In a special session on July 23, 2001, ahead of the scheduled date of August 1, 2001, the Assembly revoked its mandate to Wahid on the grounds that he had exceeded his authority, particularly by issuing a decree suspending the Assembly and the House of Representatives (DPR).

With the appointment of Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairman of the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDIP - the party which won the 1999 election), Indonesia now has a president elected by democratic and constitutional means.

Three days after the appointment of Megawati as a new president, Hamzah Haz, chairman of the Indonesian United Party (PPP), was elected the country's ninth vice president. Hamzah garnered a majority of votes in the third round of the vice presidential ballot. The appointment of Hamzah as vice president is expected to bring renewed hope for peace with a call for political parties to come together to support President Megawati Soekarnoputri's government.

The new national leadership duo of President Megawati and Vice President Hamzah Haz is expected to defuse the political and economic turmoil that has plagued the country for the past three years.

Megawati will lead Indonesia until 2004, after which Indonesia will have another general election.

The world's largest archipelago is still in the process of democratisation despite the ongoing economic crisis. By definition, democracy means that all citizens can exercise their right to speak freely and to vote in free elections, rights that have previously not been widely exercised in this country. Indonesia is experiencing a positive trend in this regard, following the emergence of the reform movement spearheaded by university students in May 1998.

It all started when students of almost all universities in Indonesia held a series of rallies demanding reforms in the government, which led to the resignation of Soeharto in May 21, 1998. The first democratic election on June 7, 1999 was seen by many as a landmark for the country after more than three decades of authoritarian rule. Indonesia then held a presidential election in October 1999 that brought Abdurrahman Wahid to the presidency.

The road to democracy is long in such large and complex country, but we are well on the way and determined to reach our goals.

Solar variation to global warming

One alternative hypothesis to the consensus view that anthropogenic forcing has caused most of the recent temperature increase is that recent warming may be the result of variations in solar activity.

A paper by Peter Stott and colleagues suggests that climate models overestimate the relative effect of greenhouse gases compared to solar forcing; they also suggest that the cooling effects of volcanic dust and sulfate aerosols have been underestimated.[30] They nevertheless conclude that even with an enhanced climate sensitivity to solar forcing, most of the warming since the mid-20th century is likely attributable to the increases in greenhouse gases. Another paper suggests that the Sun may have contributed about 45–50 percent of the increase in the average global surface temperature over the period 1900–2000, and about 25–35 percent between 1980 and 2000.[31]

Solar variation over the last thirty years.

A different hypothesis is that variations in solar output, possibly amplified by cloud seeding via galactic cosmic rays, may have contributed to recent warming.[32] It suggests magnetic activity of the sun is a crucial factor which deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.[33]

One predicted effect of an increase in solar activity would be a warming of most of the stratosphere, whereas an increase in greenhouse gases should produce cooling there.[34] The observed trend since at least 1960 has been a cooling of the lower stratosphere.[35] Reduction of stratospheric ozone also has a cooling influence, but substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s.[36] Solar variation combined with changes in volcanic activity probably did have a warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950, but a cooling effect since.[1] In 2006, Peter Foukal and colleagues found no net increase of solar brightness over the last 1,000 years. Solar cycles led to a small increase of 0.07 percent in brightness over the last 30 years. This effect is too small to contribute significantly to global warming.[37][38] One paper by Mike Lockwood and Claus Fröhlich found no relation between global warming and solar radiation since 1985, whether through variations in solar output or variations in cosmic rays.[39] Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen, the main proponents of cloud seeding by galactic cosmic rays, disputed this criticism of their hypothesis.[40] A 2007 paper found that in the last 20 years there has been no significant link between changes in cosmic rays coming to Earth and cloudiness and temperature.[41][42]

Feedback

Main article: Effects of global warming

When a warming trend results in effects that induce further warming, the process is referred to as a positive feedback; when the effects induce cooling, the process is referred to as a negative feedback. The primary positive feedback involves water vapor. The primary negative feedback is the effect of temperature on emission of infrared radiation: as the temperature of a body increases, the emitted radiation increases with the fourth power of its absolute temperature.[43] This provides a powerful negative feedback which stabilizes the climate system over time.

Water vapor feedback

One of the most pronounced positive feedback effects relates to the evaporation of water. If the atmosphere is warmed, the saturation vapour pressure increases, and the quantity of water vapor in the atmosphere will tend to increase. Since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, the increase in water vapor content makes the atmosphere warm further; this warming causes the atmosphere to hold still more water vapor (a positive feedback), and so on until other processes stop the feedback loop. The result is a much larger greenhouse effect than that due to CO₂ alone. Although this feedback process causes an increase in the absolute moisture content of the air, the relative humidity stays nearly constant or even decreases slightly because the air is warmer.[44]

Clouds

Feedback effects due to clouds are an area of ongoing research. Seen from below, clouds emit infrared radiation back to the surface, and so exert a warming effect; seen from above, clouds reflect sunlight and emit infrared radiation to space, and so exert a cooling effect. Whether the net effect is warming or cooling depends on details such as the type and altitude of the cloud, details that have been difficult to represent in climate models.[44]

Lapse rate

A subtler feedback process relates to changes in the lapse rate as the atmosphere warms. The atmosphere's temperature decreases with height in the troposphere. Since emission of infrared radiation varies with the fourth power of temperature, longwave radiation emitted from the upper atmosphere is less than that emitted from the lower atmosphere. Most of the radiation emitted from the upper atmosphere escapes to space, while most of the radiation emitted from the lower atmosphere is re-absorbed by the surface or the atmosphere. Thus, the strength of the greenhouse effect depends on the atmosphere's rate of temperature decrease with height: if the rate of temperature decrease is greater the greenhouse effect will be stronger, and if the rate of temperature decrease is smaller then the greenhouse effect will be weaker. Both theory and climate models indicate that with increased greenhouse gas content the rate of temperature decrease with height will be reduced, producing a negative lapse rate feedback that weakens the greenhouse effect. Measurements of the rate of temperature change with height are very sensitive to small errors in observations, making it difficult to establish whether the models agree with observations.

Aerial photograph showing a section of sea ice. The lighter blue areas are melt ponds and the darkest areas are open water, both have a lower albedo than the white sea ice. The melting ice contributes to the ice-albedo feedback.

Ice-albedo

Another important feedback process is ice-albedo feedback.[46] When global temperatures increase, ice near the poles melts at an increasing rate. As the ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both land and open water are on average less reflective than ice, and thus absorb more solar radiation. This causes more warming, which in turn causes more melting, and this cycle continues. Rapid Arctic shrinkage is already occurring, with 2007 being the lowest ever recorded sea ice area. Some models suggest that tipping points exist, leading to a potentially rapid collapse of sea ice cover in the Arctic.[47]

Arctic methane release

Warming is also the triggering variable for the release of methane from sources both on land and on the deep ocean floor, making both of these possible feedback effects. Thawing permafrost, such as the frozen peat bogs in Siberia, creates a positive feedback due to the potentially rapid release of CO₂ and CH₄.[48][unreliable source?] Methane discharge from permafrost is presently under intensive study.[citation needed]

Clathrate gun hypothesis

Warmer deep ocean temperatures could also release the greenhouse gas methane from the 'frozen' state of the vast deep ocean deposits of methane clathrate, according to the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis, albeit over millenial time-scales. A further release of methane from shallow cold water clathrates is also expected, and is predicted to be faster.[49] Buffett and Archer predict a large release of methane in response to warming, and a large increase in methane stores if oxygen levels in the ocean fall.[50] They offer a "global estimate of 3×10¹⁸ g of carbon (3000 Gton C) in clathrate and 2×10¹⁸ g (2000 Gton C) in methane bubbles. The predicted methane inventory decreases by 85% in response to 3 °C of warming. Conversely, the methane inventory increases by a factor of 2 if the O2 concentration of the deep ocean decreases by 40 μM or carbon rain increases by 50%"

Sequestration

Ocean ecosystems' ability to sequester carbon are expected to decline as it warms. This is because the resulting low nutrient levels of the mesopelagic zone (about 200 to 1000 m depth) limits the growth of diatoms in favor of smaller phytoplankton that are poorer biological pumps of carbon.

Crackdown on political activists continues

ISLAMABAD, Mar 13: Authorities in Pakistan''s north-west have banned political gatherings and a protest convoy has been halted in Sindh as a crackdown on activists spreads, reports BBC.
Dozens of lawyers and political leaders were arrested in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) overnight, reports BBC.
Protesters have been trying to reach Islamabad by Monday on a "long march" that is demanding the reinstatement of sacked judges.
The government says the march is aimed at destabilising the country.
The protest is causing widening international concern.
US special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband both spoke to President Asif Ali Zardari on Thursday.
Protest organisers had intended the four-day march from cities across Pakistan to culminate in a sit-in at the parliament in Islamabad, on Monday.
However, the BBC''s Syed Shoaib Hasan in Islamabad says that while protests will continue throughout Pakistani cities and activists may try to reach the capital in small groups, the crackdown has effectively ended the "long march".
Protest organisers say that more than 1,000 opposition leaders and activists have already been jailed or put under house arrest.
Police in NWFP overnight arrested dozens of lawyers, political leaders, legislators and activists in the districts of Peshawar, Mardan, Abbottabad and Mansehra.
Raids are still going on in the area amid reports that many opposition leaders and lawyers have gone into hiding to avoid arrest.
Gatherings have been banned and large contingents of police have been deployed to prevent activists from proceeding to Islamabad in large groups.
Police also blocked a convoy of protesters led by the president of the Supreme Court bar association, Ali Ahmed Kurd, as it tried to enter Sindh province on its way to the capital.
Punjab and Sindh provinces have both banned political gatherings.
Kurd said he "strongly condemned the Sindh government for stopping our peaceful march".
" I don''t think [President Zardari] will be able to complete his five years "
Nawaz Sharif
He added: "We will try to reach Islamabad by other routes and appeal to all Pakistanis to reach Islamabad in groups or as individuals by any possible means.
"This action of the government has shown to the people of Pakistan and the entire world that lawyers cannot move freely in their own country."
On Thursday, the police in Karachi, the capital of Sindh province, baton charged to disperse protesting lawyers and political activists.
Lawyers in Karachi say they will boycott all courts on Friday.
The government fears the protest could turn more violent.
The US has expressed its concern about the situation.
In addition to the Holbrooke call, US ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson met Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani.
US state department spokesman Robert Wood said the US was stressing that violence should be avoided, the rule of law respected and that peaceful protests should be allowed to proceed.
The protest follows a heightening of tensions in Pakistan, after a court ruling barring opposition PML-N party leader Nawaz Sharif and his brother from holding public office.
Sharif has backed the lawyers'' demand for the judges to be reinstated and has called on Pakistanis to join the demonstration.
He said that Mr Zardari''s refusal to meet the demand was "shortening his political life".
"I don''t think he will be able to complete his five years," Mr Sharif said.
The sackings in November 2007 of some 60 senior judges, including the then-chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, sparked countrywide protests and ultimately led to President Pervez Musharraf''s resignation.
Zardari''s critics argue that he fears the chief justice could revive corruption cases against him.
Six months after Zardari took office, Pakistan is descending deeper into crisis, correspondents say.
The BBC''s Barbara Plett in Islamabad says many believe that Mr Sharif''s backing of the protesters has turned the march into a power struggle that the country can ill afford.